To his credit, Kasy is a realist here. He doesn’t presume that any of these proposals will be easy to implement. Or that it will happen overnight, or even in the near future. The troubling question at ...

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming, and so is a fight among regulators, lawmakers, and advocates over ...

Apps that let people wager on current events have experienced explosive growth in Trump's second term. But one of the leading ...

If you're not a Federal Reserve economist, you should probably still be wary of Kalshi.

Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Nathan Goldman is a tax prof. at NC State Univ. Prediction markets have taken the U.S. by storm with over $50 billion in trading ...

Here’s what you’ll learn when you read this story: Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction ...